Research

Publications, projects, talks and outreach

My research focuses on severe convection and its links to climate change — supercells, hail, convectively-driven extreme wind gusts, and tropical-like cyclones over the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean. I combine convection-permitting numerical simulations (HARMONIE-AROME, WRF), reanalysis-based ingredients diagnostics, and pseudo-global warming experiments to quantify how anthropogenic climate change is reshaping high-impact convective weather.

16

peer-reviewed articles

6

as first author

160+

citations (Scholar)

Google Scholar    ORCID    ResearchGate    Scopus    Web of Science

Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

Names in bold indicate first or corresponding authorship.
Click the Altmetric donut to see media coverage and online attention for each paper.

  1. Calvo-Sancho, C., Díaz-Fernández, J., González-Alemán, J. J., Halifa-Marín, A., Miglietta, M. M., Azorín-Molina, C., Prein, A. F., Montoro-Mendoza, A., Bolgiani, P., Morata, A., & Martín, M. L. (2026). “Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood” Nature Communications, 17, 1492. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-68929-9

    DOI

  2. Montoro-Mendoza, A., Calvo-Sancho, C., González-Alemán, J. J., Díaz-Fernández, J., Bolgiani, P., & Martín, M. L. (2026). “Strengthening of favorable environments for North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis in midlatitudes in a warmer climate” npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 9, 45. DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01317-0

    DOI

  3. Díaz-Fernández, J., Calvo-Sancho, C., López-Reyes, M., Bolgiani, P., González-Alemán, J. J., Morata, A., Santos-Muñoz, D., & Martín, M. L. (2026). “Cost-benefit analysis of the nesting approach in HARMONIE-AROME for a supercell outbreak case study” Atmospheric Research, 334, 108774. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108774

    DOI

  4. López-Reyes, M., Martín, M. L., Calvo-Sancho, C., & González-Alemán, J. J. (2026). “Dynamic forcing behind Hurricane Lidia’s rapid intensification” Weather and Climate Dynamics, 7, 523–545. DOI: 10.5194/wcd-7-523-2026

    DOI

  5. Díaz-Fernández, J., Calvo-Sancho, C., Bolgiani, P., Sastre, M., López-Reyes, M., Fernández-González, S., & Martín, M. L. (2025). “Effect of complex orography on numerical simulations of a downburst event in Spain” Atmospheric Research, 314, 107821. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107821

    DOI

  6. Pantillon, F., Davolio, S., Avolio, E., Calvo-Sancho, C., Carrió, D. S., Dafis, S., Flaounas, E., Gentile, E. S., González-Alemán, J. J., Gray, S., Miglietta, M. M., Patlakas, P., Pytharoulis, I., Ricard, D., Ricchi, A., & Sanchez, C. (2024). “The crucial representation of deep convection for the cyclogenesis of Medicane Ianos” Weather and Climate Dynamics, 5, 1187–1205. DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024

    DOI

  7. Montoro-Mendoza, A., Calvo-Sancho, C., González-Alemán, J. J., Díaz-Fernández, J., Bolgiani, P., Sastre, M., Moreno-Chamarro, E., & Martín, M. L. (2024). “Environments conductive to tropical transitions in the North Atlantic: Anthropogenic climate change influence study” Atmospheric Research, 310, 107609. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107609

    DOI

  8. López-Reyes, M., González-Alemán, J. J., Calvo-Sancho, C., Bolgiani, P., Sastre, M., & Martín, M. L. (2024). “Remote interactions between tropical cyclones: The case of Hurricane Michael and Leslie’s high predictability uncertainty” Atmospheric Research, 311, 107697. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107697

    DOI

  9. Martín, M. L., Calvo-Sancho, C., Taszarek, M., González-Alemán, J. J., Montoro-Mendoza, A., Díaz-Fernández, J., Bolgiani, P., Sastre, M., & Martín, Y. (2024). “Major role of marine heatwave and anthropogenic climate change on a giant hail event in Spain” Geophysical Research Letters, 51(6), e2023GL107632. DOI: 10.1029/2023GL107632

    DOI

  10. Díaz-Fernández, J., Calvo-Sancho, C., Bolgiani, P., González-Alemán, J. J., Farrán, J. I., Sastre, M., & Martín, M. L. (2024). “On the precursor environments to mountain lee wave clouds in central Iberia under CMIP6 projections” Atmosphere, 15(1), 128. DOI: 10.3390/atmos15010128

    DOI

  11. Calvo-Sancho, C., Quitián-Hernández, L., González-Alemán, J. J., Bolgiani, P., Santos-Muñoz, D., & Martín, M. L. (2023). “Assessing the performance of the HARMONIE-AROME and WRF-ARW numerical models in North Atlantic tropical transitions” Atmospheric Research, 291, 106801. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106801

    DOI

  12. Calvo-Sancho, C., Quitián-Hernández, L., Bolgiani, P., González-Alemán, J. J., Santos-Muñoz, D., & Martín, M. L. (2023). “Assessment of HARMONIE-AROME in the simulation of the convective activity associated to a subtropical transition using satellite data” Atmospheric Research, 290, 106794. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106794

    DOI

  13. Calvo-Sancho, C., Bolgiani, P., Subias, A., Sastre, M., González-Alemán, J. J., & Martín, M. L. (2023). “Horizontal kinetic energy analysis of tropical transition simulations with the WRF and HARMONIE-AROME models” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 149(756), 2655–2677. DOI: 10.1002/qj.4523

    DOI

  14. Calvo-Sancho, C., Díaz-Fernández, J., Martín, Y., Bolgiani, P., Sastre, M., González-Alemán, J. J., Santos-Muñoz, D., Farrán, J. I., & Martín, M. L. (2022). “Supercell convective environments in Spain based on ERA5: hail and non-hail differences” Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3(3), 1021–1036. DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1021-2022

    DOI

  15. Calvo-Sancho, C., González-Alemán, J. J., Bolgiani, P., Santos-Muñoz, D., Farrán, J. I., & Martín, M. L. (2022). “An environmental synoptic analysis of tropical transitions in the central and Eastern North Atlantic” Atmospheric Research, 278, 106353. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106353

    DOI

  16. Bolgiani, P., Calvo-Sancho, C., Díaz-Fernández, J., Quitián-Hernández, L., Sastre, M., Santos-Muñoz, D., Farrán, J. I., González-Alemán, J. J., Valero, F., & Martín, M. L. (2022). “Wind kinetic energy climatology and effective resolution for the ERA5 reanalysis” Climate Dynamics, 59(3-4), 737–752. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06154-y

    DOI

Book Chapters & Proceedings

  • Calvo-Sancho, C., Rotunno, R., Montoro-Mendoza, A., González-Alemán, J. J., López-Reyes, M., & Martín, M. L. (2025). “Evolución del calentamiento en la transición tropical del huracán Ophelia.” In Luna, M. Y. & González-Rouco, F. (Eds.), Cambio climático y sociedad: de la ciencia básica a los servicios climáticos, AEC & AEMET, pp. 67–74.

  • Díaz-Fernández, J., Calvo-Sancho, C., Bolgiani, P., Farrán Martín, J. I., Luna Rico, Y., & Martín, M. L. (2025). “Proyecciones futuras de los precursores de ondas de montaña en la sierra de Guadarrama utilizando modelos climáticos de CMIP6.” In Luna, M. Y. & González-Rouco, F. (Eds.), Cambio climático y sociedad: de la ciencia básica a los servicios climáticos, AEC & AEMET, pp. 9–20.

  • Calvo-Sancho, C., González-Alemán, J. J., Luna, M. Y., Bolgiani, P., et al. (2022). “Identificación y distribución temporal de transiciones tropicales en el Océano Atlántico Norte.” In Martí Ezpeleta, A. et al. (Eds.), Retos del cambio climático: impactos, mitigación y adaptación, AEC & AEMET, pp. 423–431.

Research Projects

As Principal Investigator

  • SPESSANC — Severe Convective Storms in the Euro-Mediterranean Region. ECMWF Special Project. 2026–2029. CIDE, CSIC-UV-GVA.

As Team Member

  • CONSCIENCE — Tropical cyclones impacting the Eastern North Atlantic: dynamic and risk analysis under future climate (PID2023-146344OB-I00). Spanish Research Agency. PI: Dr. María Luisa Martín & Dr. Íñigo Gómara. 2024–2027. €145,000.
  • DOWNBURST — Potential effects of anthropogenic climate warming on wind storm hazards (PROMETEO CIPROM/2023/38). Generalitat Valenciana — Excellence Research Groups. PI: Dr. César Azorín-Molina. 2024–2028. €600,000.
  • RED-CLIMA 2 — Spanish and Ibero-American network on climate variability and climate services (LINCG24042). LINCGLOBAL — CSIC. PI: Dr. César Azorín-Molina. 2024–2026. €37,500.
  • MEDCYCLONES — European network for Mediterranean cyclones in weather and climate. COST Action — European Commission. PIs: Dr. E. Flaounas (ETH Zurich) & Dr. S. Davolio (Univ. di Milano). 2020–2024. €576,000.
  • IBERCANES — North Atlantic tropical-transition cyclones and the potential threat to Iberia (PID2019-105306RB-I00). Spanish Research Agency. PI: Dr. María Luisa Martín. 2020–2024. €90,000.

Talks & Presentations

Invited Lectures & Seminars

Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood Invited
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), Buenos Aires, Argentina · Mar 2026

¿Está el cambio climático reforzando los eventos extremos en España? Granizo gigante de Girona 2022 e inundaciones de València 2024 Invited
Ciclo de Coloquios DCAO, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina · Mar 2026

Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood Invited
Universidad de León, Spain · Mar 2026

Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood Invited
Seminarios Científico-Técnicos CIDE-CSIC, Moncada, Valencia, Spain · Feb 2026

¿Está el cambio climático reforzando los eventos extremos en España? Invited
Charlas del IPE-CSIC, Zaragoza, Spain · Feb 2026

¿Está el cambio climático reforzando los eventos extremos en España? Invited
XXXI Jornades de Meteorologia Eduard Fontserè, Institut d’Estudis Catalans, Barcelona, Spain · Nov 2025

Storm dynamics-based attribution to the Valencia’s deadly floods Invited
Master en Meteorología y Geofísica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain · Nov 2025

Storm dynamics-based attribution to the Valencia’s deadly floods Invited
Master en Meteorología, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain · May 2025

Conference Presentations

41 contributed presentations at international and national conferences (32 international + 9 national), including 17 oral presentations (2 solicited at EGU 2025 and AEC 2025) and 9 posters as presenter.

Selected venues: 5th Workshop on Convective Organization (Brazil, 2026), EGU General Assembly (2020–2025), EMS Annual Meeting (2024–2025), European Conference on Severe Storms (2023, 2025), AGU Fall Meeting (2023), AEC Congress, AME Jornadas Científicas, MedCyclones Workshop.

Full list available in the CV.

Awards

  • First Prize — Scientific Photography, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria · May 2025
  • Young Award for Best Contribution, Spanish Climatology Society (AEC 2025), San Lorenzo del Escorial, Spain · Jan 2025
  • Young Scientist Conference Award (YSCA), European Meteorological Society — 11th European Conference on Severe Storms · May 2023
  • Young Award for Best Contribution, Spanish Climatology Society (AEC 2022), Santiago de Compostela, Spain · Oct 2022

Fellowships & Stays

Fellowships

  • Juan de la Cierva Postdoctoral Fellowship (Sep 2026 – Aug 2028) — Spanish Ministry of Science (Ref: JDC2024-055355-I)
  • FPI Predoctoral Fellowship (Sep 2021 – Aug 2025) — Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation. ~€100,000

Research Stays

  • Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), Buenos Aires, Argentina (Mar–Apr 2026, 1.5 months) — Host: Mercedes Poggi. Topic: downburst detection algorithms in radar data
  • Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE-CSIC), Zaragoza, Spain (Dec 2025–Mar 2026, 3 months) — Host: Dr. César Azorín-Molina. Topic: climate change attribution of the 2024 Valencia floods
  • Centro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificación (CIDE, CSIC-UV-GVA), Moncada, Spain (Nov 2024–Feb 2025, 4 months) — Host: Dr. César Azorín-Molina. Topic: climate change attribution of the 2024 Valencia floods
  • National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA (Sep–Dec 2023, 3 months) — Host: Dr. Richard Rotunno. Topic: secondary circulation in the tropical transition of Hurricane Ophelia
  • Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET), Madrid, Spain (Dec 2022–Feb 2023, 3 months) — Host: Dra. Yolanda Luna Rico. Topic: sub-km HARMONIE-AROME simulations

Peer Review

Reviewer for the following journals:

  • Nature Communications (since 2025)
  • Atmospheric Research (since 2023)
  • Weather and Climate Dynamics (since 2024)
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (since 2024)
  • Weather and Climate Extremes (since 2025)
  • Frontiers in Marine Science (since 2025)
  • Scientific Data (since 2025)

Spanish Supercell & Hail Project

Storm chase, photo by the author.

Co-founder of the Spanish Supercell and Hail citizen science project, which collects reports of supercells and large hail (≥ 5 cm) across Spain via social media on @Supercelulas (X) and @supercelulas.bsky.social (Bluesky).

The project bridges observational gaps to assess how climate change is shaping the frequency and intensity of severe convective events, supporting research on convective climatology, storm ingredients, and climate change attribution of extreme convection in the Western Mediterranean.

X / Twitter Bluesky

Media Coverage

The 2026 Nature Communications attribution study on the Valencia DANA flash flood received broad national and international coverage.

International press

Spanish press

TV & radio

Institutional & scientific